COL vs BAL

SP TBD vs Gabriel Hughes

Orioles 85%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (9pp). Orioles has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp). Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.5pp).

Batting & Roster — Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp). Orioles has the edge in WAR (0.9pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp). Orioles has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Rockies has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Orioles has the edge in Recent Form (25pp). Orioles has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Rockies has the edge in Park Factor (0.6pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Orioles ahead by 70pp.

Factor BalanceOrioles favoredFactors 3:1(SP FIP·SP xFIP·Team WAR)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Orioles 4.06vsRockies 4.81

Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (9pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -9pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Orioles 4.23vsRockies 4.73

Orioles has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -1.5pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Orioles 4.06vsRockies 4.81

Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.5pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -7.5pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Orioles 0.316vsRockies 0.324

Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp).

Rockies edge · contribution +0.4pp

WAR

weight 8%

Orioles 18.4vsRockies 7.5

Orioles has the edge in WAR (0.9pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -0.9pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Orioles 70.0%vsRockies 20.0%

Orioles has the edge in Recent Form (25pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -25pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Orioles 0.324vsRockies 0.309

Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -0.4pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Orioles 8.7%vsRockies 6.5%

Orioles has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -0.1pp

Elo

weight 10%

Orioles 1503vsRockies 1488

Orioles has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).

Orioles edge · contribution -0.4pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rockies win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Orioles @ Rockies · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 14h before game time