COL vs BAL
SP Cade Povich vs Tanner Gordon
Final: BAL 2 - 1 COL
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (9.1pp). Orioles has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp). Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.6pp).
Batting & Roster — Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Orioles has the edge in WAR (0.8pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp). Orioles has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Rockies has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Orioles has the edge in Recent Form (20pp). Orioles has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Rockies has the edge in Park Factor (0.6pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Orioles ahead by 66pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (9.1pp).
Orioles edge · contribution -9.1pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Orioles has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp).
Orioles edge · contribution -1.5pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.6pp).
Orioles edge · contribution -7.6pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rockies win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Orioles @ Rockies · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 14h before game time