CIN vs SDP
SP Casey Mize vs Brandon Williamson
Final: SDP 3 - 7 CIN
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Padres has the edge in SP FIP (6.4pp). Padres has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp). Padres has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.3pp).
Batting & Roster — Reds has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Padres has the edge in WAR (0.5pp).
Situational — Reds has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Padres has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Padres has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Padres has the edge in Elo (0.3pp). Reds has the edge in Park Factor (0.4pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Padres ahead by 38pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Padres has the edge in SP FIP (6.4pp).
Padres edge · contribution -6.4pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Padres has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp).
Padres edge · contribution -1.2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Padres has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.3pp).
Padres edge · contribution -5.3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Reds has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Reds win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Padres @ Reds · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 6h before game time