CIN vs SDP

SP Casey Mize vs Brandon Williamson

Padres 69%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Padres has the edge in SP FIP (6.4pp). Padres has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp). Padres has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.3pp).

Batting & Roster — Reds has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Padres has the edge in WAR (0.5pp).

Situational — Reds has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Padres has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Padres has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Padres has the edge in Elo (0.3pp). Reds has the edge in Park Factor (0.4pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Padres ahead by 38pp.

Factor BalancePadres favoredFactors 2:1(SP FIP·Team WAR)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Padres 4.17vsReds 4.70

Padres has the edge in SP FIP (6.4pp).

Padres edge · contribution -6.4pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Padres 4.23vsReds 4.64

Padres has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp).

Padres edge · contribution -1.2pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Padres 4.17vsReds 4.70

Padres has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.3pp).

Padres edge · contribution -5.3pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Padres 0.309vsReds 0.310

Reds has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).

Reds edge · contribution +0.1pp

WAR

weight 8%

Padres 16.1vsReds 9.7

Padres has the edge in WAR (0.5pp).

Padres edge · contribution -0.5pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Padres 50.0%vsReds 30.0%

Padres has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).

Padres edge · contribution -10pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Padres 100%vsReds 0%

Padres has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Padres edge · contribution -1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Padres 0.317vsReds 0.316

Negligible gap in Lineup xwOBA.

Even

Barrel%

weight 3%

Padres 7.9%vsReds 9.2%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Padres 1510vsReds 1498

Padres has the edge in Elo (0.3pp).

Padres edge · contribution -0.3pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Reds win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Padres @ Reds · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Padres vs Reds)

Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-31Padres @ Reds5-0

Predicted:SDP→Actual SDPCorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 6h before game time