CIN vs SDP

SP Michael King vs Brady Singer

Padres 63%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Padres has the edge in SP FIP (6.6pp). Padres has the edge in SP xFIP (1.3pp). Padres has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.5pp).

Batting & Roster — Padres has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Padres has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Reds has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Padres has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Padres has the edge in Elo (0.3pp). Reds has the edge in Park Factor (0.4pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Padres ahead by 27pp.

Factor BalancePadres favoredFactors 2:1(SP FIP·Team WAR)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Padres 4.17vsReds 4.72

Padres has the edge in SP FIP (6.6pp).

Padres edge · contribution -6.6pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Padres 4.22vsReds 4.65

Padres has the edge in SP xFIP (1.3pp).

Padres edge · contribution -1.3pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Padres 4.17vsReds 4.72

Padres has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.5pp).

Padres edge · contribution -5.5pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Padres 0.310vsReds 0.309

Padres has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).

Padres edge · contribution -0.1pp

WAR

weight 8%

Padres 16.3vsReds 9.2

Padres has the edge in WAR (0.6pp).

Padres edge · contribution -0.6pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Padres 50.0%vsReds 40.0%

Padres has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).

Padres edge · contribution -5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Padres 0.318vsReds 0.316

Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Padres edge · contribution -0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Padres 8.0%vsReds 9.1%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Padres 1510vsReds 1498

Padres has the edge in Elo (0.3pp).

Padres edge · contribution -0.3pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Reds win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Padres @ Reds · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time