BOS vs SEA

SP TBD vs Patrick Sandoval

Red Sox 75%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.1pp). Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.6pp).

Batting & Roster — Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp). Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Mariners has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Red Sox has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Red Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.8pp). Red Sox has the edge in Elo (1.3pp). Red Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Red Sox ahead by 50pp.

Factor BalanceRed Sox favoredFactors 2:0(Team WAR·PF)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Mariners 3.96vsRed Sox 3.70

Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.1pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution +3.1pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Mariners 3.92vsRed Sox 3.82

Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution +0.3pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Mariners 3.96vsRed Sox 3.70

Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.6pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution +2.6pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Mariners 0.303vsRed Sox 0.320

Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution +0.9pp

WAR

weight 8%

Mariners 11.7vsRed Sox 19.0

Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.6pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution +0.6pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Mariners 40.0%vsRed Sox 60.0%

Red Sox has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution +10pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Mariners 25%vsRed Sox 75%

Red Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.8pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution +0.8pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Mariners 0.313vsRed Sox 0.311

Mariners has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Mariners edge · contribution -0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Mariners 7.5%vsRed Sox 7.2%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Mariners 1481vsRed Sox 1532

Red Sox has the edge in Elo (1.3pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution +1.3pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Red Sox win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Mariners @ Red Sox · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Mariners vs Red Sox)

Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-31Mariners @ Red Sox8-9

Predicted:BOS→Actual BOSCorrect

2026-06-21Red Sox @ Mariners1-3

Predicted:SEA→Actual SEACorrect

2026-06-20Red Sox @ Mariners5-1

Predicted:SEA→Actual BOSWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 10h before game time