BOS vs SEA

SP George Kirby vs Payton Tolle

Red Sox 71%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp). Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).

Batting & Roster — Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp). Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Mariners has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Red Sox has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Red Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp). Red Sox has the edge in Elo (1.3pp). Red Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Red Sox ahead by 41pp.

Factor BalanceRed Sox favoredFactors 2:0(Team WAR·PF)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Mariners 3.92vsRed Sox 3.63

Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution +3.5pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Mariners 3.88vsRed Sox 3.79

Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution +0.3pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Mariners 3.92vsRed Sox 3.63

Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution +2.9pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Mariners 0.303vsRed Sox 0.320

Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution +0.9pp

WAR

weight 8%

Mariners 11.9vsRed Sox 18.9

Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.6pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution +0.6pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Mariners 50.0%vsRed Sox 60.0%

Red Sox has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution +5pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Mariners 33%vsRed Sox 67%

Red Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution +0.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Mariners 0.315vsRed Sox 0.311

Mariners has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Mariners edge · contribution -0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Mariners 7.6%vsRed Sox 7.2%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Mariners 1481vsRed Sox 1532

Red Sox has the edge in Elo (1.3pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution +1.3pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Red Sox win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Mariners @ Red Sox · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Mariners vs Red Sox)

Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-06-21Red Sox @ Mariners1-3

Predicted:SEA→Actual SEACorrect

2026-06-20Red Sox @ Mariners5-1

Predicted:SEA→Actual BOSWrong

2026-06-19Red Sox @ Mariners6-2

Predicted:SEA→Actual BOSWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time