ARI vs PHI

SP Andrew Painter vs TBD

Phillies 77%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (7.4pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (2.9pp). Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.2pp).

Batting & Roster — Diamondbacks has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Situational — Diamondbacks has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Phillies has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Phillies has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Elo (0.3pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Phillies ahead by 54pp.

Factor BalancePhillies favoredFactors 2:1(SP FIP·SP xFIP)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Phillies 3.76vsDiamondbacks 4.38

Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (7.4pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -7.4pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Phillies 3.52vsDiamondbacks 4.50

Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (2.9pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -2.9pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Phillies 3.76vsDiamondbacks 4.38

Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.2pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -6.2pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Phillies 0.314vsDiamondbacks 0.314

Negligible gap in Lineup wOBA.

Even

WAR

weight 8%

Phillies 11.8vsDiamondbacks 16.9

Diamondbacks has the edge in WAR (0.4pp).

Diamondbacks edge · contribution +0.4pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Phillies 80.0%vsDiamondbacks 50.0%

Phillies has the edge in Recent Form (15pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -15pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Phillies 100%vsDiamondbacks 0%

Phillies has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Phillies 0.319vsDiamondbacks 0.313

Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -0.2pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Phillies 7.3%vsDiamondbacks 7.1%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Phillies 1497vsDiamondbacks 1508

Diamondbacks has the edge in Elo (0.3pp).

Diamondbacks edge · contribution +0.3pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Diamondbacks win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Phillies @ Diamondbacks · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Phillies vs Diamondbacks)

Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-31Phillies @ Diamondbacks2-1

Predicted:PHI→Actual PHICorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 9h before game time