ARI vs PHI

SP Aaron Nola vs Brandon Pfaadt

Phillies 70%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (7.2pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (2.9pp). Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6pp).

Batting & Roster — Diamondbacks has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Situational — Diamondbacks has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Phillies has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Elo (0.3pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Phillies ahead by 40pp.

Factor BalancePhillies favoredFactors 2:1(SP FIP·SP xFIP)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Phillies 3.77vsDiamondbacks 4.37

Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (7.2pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -7.2pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Phillies 3.51vsDiamondbacks 4.49

Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (2.9pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -2.9pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Phillies 3.77vsDiamondbacks 4.37

Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -6pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Phillies 0.314vsDiamondbacks 0.314

Negligible gap in Lineup wOBA.

Even

WAR

weight 8%

Phillies 11.5vsDiamondbacks 16.9

Diamondbacks has the edge in WAR (0.4pp).

Diamondbacks edge · contribution +0.4pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Phillies 80.0%vsDiamondbacks 60.0%

Phillies has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -10pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Phillies 0.319vsDiamondbacks 0.313

Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -0.2pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Phillies 7.3%vsDiamondbacks 7.1%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Phillies 1497vsDiamondbacks 1508

Diamondbacks has the edge in Elo (0.3pp).

Diamondbacks edge · contribution +0.3pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Diamondbacks win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Phillies @ Diamondbacks · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 15h before game time