ARI vs PHI
SP Jesús Luzardo vs Eduardo Rodriguez
Final: PHI 7 - 1 ARI
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (7.3pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (2.9pp). Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Diamondbacks has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Diamondbacks has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Phillies has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Elo (0.3pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Phillies ahead by 40pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (7.3pp).
Phillies edge · contribution -7.3pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (2.9pp).
Phillies edge · contribution -2.9pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.1pp).
Phillies edge · contribution -6.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Negligible gap in Lineup wOBA.
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Diamondbacks win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Phillies @ Diamondbacks · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 15h before game time