SFG vs ARI
SP Merrill Kelly vs Matt Wilkinson
Final: ARI 7 - 1 SFG
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Giants has the edge in SP FIP (2.8pp). Giants has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp). Giants has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.3pp).
Batting & Roster — Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Giants has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Elo (0.5pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Giants ahead by 9pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Giants has the edge in SP FIP (2.8pp).
Giants edge · contribution +2.8pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Giants has the edge in SP xFIP (0.3pp).
Giants edge · contribution +0.3pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Giants has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.3pp).
Giants edge · contribution +2.3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Giants win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Diamondbacks @ Giants · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 10h before game time