SFG vs ARI
SP Kohl Drake vs Blade Tidwell
Final: ARI 10 - 6 SFG
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Giants has the edge in SP FIP (2.8pp). Giants has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp). Giants has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.3pp).
Batting & Roster — Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Giants has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Elo (0.5pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Diamondbacks ahead by 2pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Giants has the edge in SP FIP (2.8pp).
Giants edge · contribution +2.8pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Giants has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp).
Giants edge · contribution +0.4pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Giants has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.3pp).
Giants edge · contribution +2.3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Giants win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Diamondbacks @ Giants · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 16h before game time