SFG vs ARI

SP Jose Cabrera vs Landen Roupp

Giants 55%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Giants has the edge in SP FIP (3.2pp). Giants has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp). Giants has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.7pp).

Batting & Roster — Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Giants has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Elo (0.5pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Giants ahead by 10pp.

Factor BalanceDiamondbacks favoredFactors 1:0(PF)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Diamondbacks 4.40vsGiants 4.13

Giants has the edge in SP FIP (3.2pp).

Giants edge · contribution +3.2pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Diamondbacks 4.51vsGiants 4.38

Giants has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp).

Giants edge · contribution +0.4pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Diamondbacks 4.40vsGiants 4.13

Giants has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.7pp).

Giants edge · contribution +2.7pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Diamondbacks 0.314vsGiants 0.310

Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).

Diamondbacks edge · contribution -0.2pp

WAR

weight 8%

Diamondbacks 16.1vsGiants 11.5

Diamondbacks has the edge in WAR (0.4pp).

Diamondbacks edge · contribution -0.4pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Diamondbacks 50.0%vsGiants 40.0%

Diamondbacks has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).

Diamondbacks edge · contribution -5pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Diamondbacks 67%vsGiants 33%

Diamondbacks has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp).

Diamondbacks edge · contribution -0.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Diamondbacks 0.314vsGiants 0.309

Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Diamondbacks edge · contribution -0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Diamondbacks 7.1%vsGiants 7.4%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Diamondbacks 1508vsGiants 1487

Diamondbacks has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).

Diamondbacks edge · contribution -0.5pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Giants win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Diamondbacks @ Giants · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Diamondbacks vs Giants)

Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-07-01Giants @ Diamondbacks6-4

Predicted:ARI→Actual SFGWrong

2026-06-30Giants @ Diamondbacks2-8

Predicted:ARI→Actual ARICorrect

2026-06-29Giants @ Diamondbacks4-5

Predicted:ARI→Actual ARICorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 15h before game time