ATL vs LAD

SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Chris Sale

Dodgers 65%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Dodgers has the edge in SP FIP (2.3pp). Dodgers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Dodgers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.9pp).

Batting & Roster — Dodgers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp). Dodgers has the edge in WAR (0.7pp). Dodgers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.6pp).

Situational — Braves has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Dodgers has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Braves has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Dodgers has the edge in Elo (0.1pp). Braves has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Dodgers ahead by 30pp.

Factor BalanceDodgers favoredFactors 1:0(Team WAR)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Dodgers 3.87vsBraves 4.06

Dodgers has the edge in SP FIP (2.3pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -2.3pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Dodgers 3.86vsBraves 4.09

Dodgers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -0.7pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Dodgers 3.87vsBraves 4.06

Dodgers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.9pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -1.9pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Dodgers 0.332vsBraves 0.316

Dodgers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -0.8pp

WAR

weight 8%

Dodgers 22.8vsBraves 14.1

Dodgers has the edge in WAR (0.7pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -0.7pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Dodgers 70.0%vsBraves 40.0%

Dodgers has the edge in Recent Form (15pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -15pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Dodgers 0%vsBraves 100%

Braves has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Braves edge · contribution +1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Dodgers 0.338vsBraves 0.316

Dodgers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.6pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -0.6pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Dodgers 8.6%vsBraves 8.6%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Dodgers 1511vsBraves 1507

Dodgers has the edge in Elo (0.1pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -0.1pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Braves win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Dodgers @ Braves · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Dodgers vs Braves)

Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-26Dodgers @ Braves5-6

Predicted:LAD→Actual ATLWrong

2026-08-25Dodgers @ Braves3-4

Predicted:LAD→Actual ATLWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time