ATL vs LAD

SP Roki Sasaki vs AJ Smith-Shawver

Dodgers 71%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Dodgers has the edge in SP FIP (2.2pp). Dodgers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Dodgers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.8pp).

Batting & Roster — Dodgers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp). Dodgers has the edge in WAR (0.7pp). Dodgers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp).

Situational — Braves has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Dodgers has the edge in Recent Form (20pp). Dodgers has the edge in Elo (0.1pp). Braves has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Dodgers ahead by 42pp.

Factor BalanceDodgers favoredFactors 1:0(Team WAR)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Dodgers 3.89vsBraves 4.07

Dodgers has the edge in SP FIP (2.2pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -2.2pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Dodgers 3.86vsBraves 4.08

Dodgers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -0.7pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Dodgers 3.89vsBraves 4.07

Dodgers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.8pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -1.8pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Dodgers 0.333vsBraves 0.316

Dodgers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -0.9pp

WAR

weight 8%

Dodgers 22.6vsBraves 13.9

Dodgers has the edge in WAR (0.7pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -0.7pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Dodgers 70.0%vsBraves 30.0%

Dodgers has the edge in Recent Form (20pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -20pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Dodgers 0.338vsBraves 0.317

Dodgers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -0.5pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Dodgers 8.6%vsBraves 8.6%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Dodgers 1511vsBraves 1507

Dodgers has the edge in Elo (0.1pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution -0.1pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Braves win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Dodgers @ Braves · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Dodgers vs Braves)

Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-25Dodgers @ Braves3-4

Predicted:LAD→Actual ATLWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time