SEA vs PHI

SP Jesús Luzardo vs Bryan Woo

Phillies 63%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (1.3pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp). Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.1pp).

Batting & Roster — Phillies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Mariners has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Mariners has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Phillies has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Mariners has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Phillies has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Phillies has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Phillies ahead by 25pp.

Factor BalancePhillies favoredFactors 1:0(PF)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Phillies 3.80vsMariners 3.91

Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (1.3pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -1.3pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Phillies 3.52vsMariners 3.89

Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -1.1pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Phillies 3.80vsMariners 3.91

Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.1pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -1.1pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Phillies 0.314vsMariners 0.305

Phillies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -0.5pp

WAR

weight 8%

Phillies 11.3vsMariners 12.4

Mariners has the edge in WAR (0.1pp).

Mariners edge · contribution +0.1pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Phillies 90.0%vsMariners 60.0%

Phillies has the edge in Recent Form (15pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -15pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Phillies 0%vsMariners 100%

Mariners has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Mariners edge · contribution +1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Phillies 0.319vsMariners 0.315

Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Phillies 7.3%vsMariners 7.5%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Phillies 1497vsMariners 1481

Phillies has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -0.4pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mariners win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Phillies @ Mariners · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Phillies vs Mariners)

Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-25Phillies @ Mariners1-4

Predicted:PHI→Actual SEAWrong

2026-08-24Phillies @ Mariners2-9

Predicted:PHI→Actual SEAWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 10h before game time