SEA vs PHI
SP Jesús Luzardo vs Bryan Woo
Final: PHI 6 - 0 SEA
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (1.3pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp). Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Phillies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Mariners has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Mariners has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Phillies has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Mariners has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Phillies has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Phillies has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Phillies ahead by 25pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (1.3pp).
Phillies edge · contribution -1.3pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp).
Phillies edge · contribution -1.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.1pp).
Phillies edge · contribution -1.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Phillies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mariners win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Phillies @ Mariners · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 10h before game time