SEA vs PHI

SP Zack Wheeler vs Logan Gilbert

Phillies 59%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (1.2pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp). Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1pp).

Batting & Roster — Phillies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Mariners has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Phillies has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Phillies has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Phillies has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Phillies ahead by 18pp.

Factor BalancePhillies favoredFactors 1:0(PF)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Phillies 3.75vsMariners 3.85

Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (1.2pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -1.2pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Phillies 3.53vsMariners 3.87

Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -1pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Phillies 3.75vsMariners 3.85

Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -1pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Phillies 0.314vsMariners 0.304

Phillies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -0.5pp

WAR

weight 8%

Phillies 12.3vsMariners 11.8

Negligible gap in WAR.

Even

Recent Form

weight 10%

Phillies 80.0%vsMariners 60.0%

Phillies has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -10pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Phillies 0.320vsMariners 0.316

Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Phillies 7.3%vsMariners 7.5%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Phillies 1497vsMariners 1481

Phillies has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -0.4pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mariners win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Phillies @ Mariners · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 15h before game time