SEA vs PHI

SP Aaron Nola vs George Kirby

Phillies 66%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (1.9pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp). Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.6pp).

Batting & Roster — Phillies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Phillies has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Mariners has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Phillies has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Phillies has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Phillies has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Phillies ahead by 31pp.

Factor BalancePhillies favoredFactors 1:0(PF)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Phillies 3.75vsMariners 3.91

Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (1.9pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -1.9pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Phillies 3.52vsMariners 3.90

Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -1.1pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Phillies 3.75vsMariners 3.91

Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.6pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -1.6pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Phillies 0.315vsMariners 0.304

Phillies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -0.6pp

WAR

weight 8%

Phillies 12.5vsMariners 11.8

Phillies has the edge in WAR (0.1pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -0.1pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Phillies 90.0%vsMariners 60.0%

Phillies has the edge in Recent Form (15pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -15pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Phillies 0.320vsMariners 0.315

Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Phillies 7.3%vsMariners 7.4%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Phillies 1497vsMariners 1481

Phillies has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).

Phillies edge · contribution -0.4pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mariners win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Phillies @ Mariners · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Phillies vs Mariners)

Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-24Phillies @ Mariners2-9

Predicted:PHI→Actual SEAWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 15h before game time