SDP vs PIT

SP Bubba Chandler vs Randy Vásquez

Padres 53%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (3.1pp). Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (0.6pp). Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.6pp).

Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp). Padres has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Padres has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Padres has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Pirates has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Padres has the edge in Elo (0.5pp). Pirates has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Padres ahead by 5pp.

Factor BalancePirates favoredFactors 1:0(PF)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Pirates 3.90vsPadres 4.16

Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (3.1pp).

Pirates edge · contribution -3.1pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Pirates 4.03vsPadres 4.23

Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (0.6pp).

Pirates edge · contribution -0.6pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Pirates 3.90vsPadres 4.16

Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.6pp).

Pirates edge · contribution -2.6pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Pirates 0.325vsPadres 0.312

Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp).

Pirates edge · contribution -0.7pp

WAR

weight 8%

Pirates 15.5vsPadres 16.2

Padres has the edge in WAR (0.1pp).

Padres edge · contribution +0.1pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Pirates 50.0%vsPadres 60.0%

Padres has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).

Padres edge · contribution +5pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Pirates 100%vsPadres 0%

Pirates has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Pirates edge · contribution -1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Pirates 0.315vsPadres 0.319

Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Padres edge · contribution +0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Pirates 8.0%vsPadres 8.2%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Pirates 1489vsPadres 1510

Padres has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).

Padres edge · contribution +0.5pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Padres win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Pirates @ Padres · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Pirates vs Padres)

Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-25Pirates @ Padres1-0

Predicted:SDP→Actual PITWrong

2026-08-24Pirates @ Padres3-2

Predicted:SDP→Actual PITWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 10h before game time