SDP vs PIT
SP Braxton Ashcraft vs Robbie Ray
Final: PIT 3 - 2 SDP
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (3.1pp). Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.6pp).
Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp). Pirates has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Padres has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Padres has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Padres has the edge in Elo (0.5pp). Pirates has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Padres ahead by 17pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (3.1pp).
Pirates edge · contribution -3.1pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp).
Pirates edge · contribution -0.7pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.6pp).
Pirates edge · contribution -2.6pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Padres win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Pirates @ Padres · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 15h before game time