SDP vs PIT

SP Braxton Ashcraft vs Robbie Ray

Padres 59%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (3.1pp). Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.6pp).

Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp). Pirates has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Padres has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Padres has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Padres has the edge in Elo (0.5pp). Pirates has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Padres ahead by 17pp.

Factor BalancePirates favoredFactors 1:0(PF)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Pirates 3.91vsPadres 4.17

Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (3.1pp).

Pirates edge · contribution -3.1pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Pirates 4.02vsPadres 4.25

Pirates has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp).

Pirates edge · contribution -0.7pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Pirates 3.91vsPadres 4.17

Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.6pp).

Pirates edge · contribution -2.6pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Pirates 0.327vsPadres 0.311

Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp).

Pirates edge · contribution -0.8pp

WAR

weight 8%

Pirates 16.6vsPadres 15.5

Pirates has the edge in WAR (0.1pp).

Pirates edge · contribution -0.1pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Pirates 50.0%vsPadres 70.0%

Padres has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).

Padres edge · contribution +10pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Pirates 0.316vsPadres 0.318

Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Padres edge · contribution +0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Pirates 8.0%vsPadres 8.2%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Pirates 1489vsPadres 1510

Padres has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).

Padres edge · contribution +0.5pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Padres win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Pirates @ Padres · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 15h before game time