DET vs TBR

SP Freddy Peralta vs Troy Melton

Rays 59%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Tigers has the edge in SP FIP (1.6pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp). Tigers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.3pp).

Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Tigers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp). Tigers has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Tigers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Rays has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Rays has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Rays has the edge in Elo (0.2pp). Rays has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Rays ahead by 18pp.

Factor BalanceEvenFactors 0:0

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Rays 4.08vsTigers 3.95

Tigers has the edge in SP FIP (1.6pp).

Tigers edge · contribution +1.6pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Rays 3.97vsTigers 4.05

Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp).

Rays edge · contribution -0.2pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Rays 4.08vsTigers 3.95

Tigers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.3pp).

Tigers edge · contribution +1.3pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Rays 0.323vsTigers 0.317

Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).

Rays edge · contribution -0.3pp

WAR

weight 8%

Rays 19.6vsTigers 14.9

Rays has the edge in WAR (0.4pp).

Rays edge · contribution -0.4pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Rays 40.0%vsTigers 10.0%

Rays has the edge in Recent Form (15pp).

Rays edge · contribution -15pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Rays 100%vsTigers 0%

Rays has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Rays edge · contribution -1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Rays 0.306vsTigers 0.320

Tigers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).

Tigers edge · contribution +0.4pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Rays 5.7%vsTigers 8.3%

Tigers has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Tigers edge · contribution +0.1pp

Elo

weight 10%

Rays 1525vsTigers 1518

Rays has the edge in Elo (0.2pp).

Rays edge · contribution -0.2pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Tigers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Rays @ Tigers · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Rays vs Tigers)

Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-25Rays @ Tigers1-4

Predicted:DET→Actual DETCorrect

2026-08-24Rays @ Tigers4-1

Predicted:DET→Actual TBRWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 7h before game time