DET vs TBR
SP Drew Rasmussen vs Framber Valdez
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Tigers has the edge in SP FIP (2.2pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp). Tigers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.8pp).
Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Tigers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp). Tigers has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Tigers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Rays has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Rays has the edge in Elo (0.2pp). Rays has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Tigers ahead by 8pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Tigers has the edge in SP FIP (2.2pp).
Tigers edge · contribution +2.2pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp).
Rays edge · contribution -0.2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Tigers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.8pp).
Tigers edge · contribution +1.8pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Rays edge · contribution -0.3pp
WAR
weight 8%Rays has the edge in WAR (0.3pp).
Rays edge · contribution -0.3pp
Recent Form
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).
Rays edge · contribution -5pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Tigers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Tigers edge · contribution +0.3pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Tigers has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Tigers edge · contribution +0.1pp
Elo
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Elo (0.2pp).
Rays edge · contribution -0.2pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Tigers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Rays @ Tigers · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time