ARI vs CHC

SP Matthew Boyd vs Eduardo Rodriguez

Diamondbacks 56%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Diamondbacks has the edge in SP FIP (3.1pp). Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.6pp).

Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.2pp). Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Situational — Diamondbacks has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Cubs has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Cubs has the edge in Elo (0.6pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Diamondbacks ahead by 12pp.

Factor BalanceCubs favoredFactors 2:0(Lineup wOBA·Team WAR)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Cubs 4.66vsDiamondbacks 4.40

Diamondbacks has the edge in SP FIP (3.1pp).

Diamondbacks edge · contribution +3.1pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Cubs 4.24vsDiamondbacks 4.51

Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp).

Cubs edge · contribution -0.8pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Cubs 4.66vsDiamondbacks 4.40

Diamondbacks has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.6pp).

Diamondbacks edge · contribution +2.6pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Cubs 0.335vsDiamondbacks 0.315

Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1pp).

Cubs edge · contribution -1pp

WAR

weight 8%

Cubs 31.1vsDiamondbacks 15.9

Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.2pp).

Cubs edge · contribution -1.2pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Cubs 50.0%vsDiamondbacks 50.0%

Negligible gap in Recent Form.

Even

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Cubs 100%vsDiamondbacks 0%

Cubs has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Cubs edge · contribution -1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Cubs 0.321vsDiamondbacks 0.313

Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Cubs edge · contribution -0.2pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Cubs 7.4%vsDiamondbacks 7.1%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Cubs 1533vsDiamondbacks 1508

Cubs has the edge in Elo (0.6pp).

Cubs edge · contribution -0.6pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Diamondbacks win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Cubs @ Diamondbacks · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Cubs vs Diamondbacks)

Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-25Cubs @ Diamondbacks4-5

Predicted:ARI→Actual ARICorrect

2026-08-24Cubs @ Diamondbacks7-0

Predicted:ARI→Actual CHCWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 9h before game time