ARI vs CHC

SP Kevin Gausman vs Merrill Kelly

Diamondbacks 58%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Diamondbacks has the edge in SP FIP (3.4pp). Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.8pp).

Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (1pp). Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Situational — Diamondbacks has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Cubs has the edge in Elo (0.6pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Diamondbacks ahead by 17pp.

Factor BalanceCubs favoredFactors 1:0(Team WAR)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Cubs 4.68vsDiamondbacks 4.40

Diamondbacks has the edge in SP FIP (3.4pp).

Diamondbacks edge · contribution +3.4pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Cubs 4.25vsDiamondbacks 4.50

Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp).

Cubs edge · contribution -0.7pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Cubs 4.68vsDiamondbacks 4.40

Diamondbacks has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.8pp).

Diamondbacks edge · contribution +2.8pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Cubs 0.333vsDiamondbacks 0.315

Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp).

Cubs edge · contribution -0.9pp

WAR

weight 8%

Cubs 29.0vsDiamondbacks 16.1

Cubs has the edge in WAR (1pp).

Cubs edge · contribution -1pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Cubs 40.0%vsDiamondbacks 40.0%

Negligible gap in Recent Form.

Even

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Cubs 0.320vsDiamondbacks 0.314

Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Cubs edge · contribution -0.2pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Cubs 7.3%vsDiamondbacks 7.1%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Cubs 1533vsDiamondbacks 1508

Cubs has the edge in Elo (0.6pp).

Cubs edge · contribution -0.6pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Diamondbacks win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Cubs @ Diamondbacks · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 15h before game time