ARI vs CHC
SP Clay Holmes vs Brandon Pfaadt
Final: CHC 4 - 5 ARI
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Diamondbacks has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp). Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.1pp). Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Diamondbacks has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Cubs has the edge in Elo (0.6pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Diamondbacks ahead by 27pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Diamondbacks has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution +3.5pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp).
Cubs edge · contribution -0.8pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Diamondbacks has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution +2.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Diamondbacks win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Cubs @ Diamondbacks · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 15h before game time