ARI vs CHC

SP Clay Holmes vs Brandon Pfaadt

Diamondbacks 64%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Diamondbacks has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp). Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).

Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.1pp). Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Situational — Diamondbacks has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Cubs has the edge in Elo (0.6pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Diamondbacks ahead by 27pp.

Factor BalanceCubs favoredFactors 1:0(Team WAR)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Cubs 4.68vsDiamondbacks 4.39

Diamondbacks has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp).

Diamondbacks edge · contribution +3.5pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Cubs 4.24vsDiamondbacks 4.50

Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp).

Cubs edge · contribution -0.8pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Cubs 4.68vsDiamondbacks 4.39

Diamondbacks has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).

Diamondbacks edge · contribution +2.9pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Cubs 0.335vsDiamondbacks 0.316

Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1pp).

Cubs edge · contribution -1pp

WAR

weight 8%

Cubs 30.0vsDiamondbacks 16.1

Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.1pp).

Cubs edge · contribution -1.1pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Cubs 40.0%vsDiamondbacks 50.0%

Diamondbacks has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).

Diamondbacks edge · contribution +5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Cubs 0.320vsDiamondbacks 0.314

Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Cubs edge · contribution -0.2pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Cubs 7.3%vsDiamondbacks 7.1%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Cubs 1533vsDiamondbacks 1508

Cubs has the edge in Elo (0.6pp).

Cubs edge · contribution -0.6pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Diamondbacks win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Cubs @ Diamondbacks · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Cubs vs Diamondbacks)

Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-24Cubs @ Diamondbacks7-0

Predicted:ARI→Actual CHCWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 15h before game time