SP FIP
weight 12%Twins 4.28vsPadres 4.15
Padres has the edge in SP FIP (1.6pp).
Padres edge · contribution +1.6pp
SDP vs MIN
SDP 70%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Padres has the edge in SP FIP (1.6pp). Padres has the edge in SP xFIP (0.6pp). Padres has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.3pp).
Batting & Roster — Twins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp). Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Padres has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Padres has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Padres has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Twins has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Padres ahead by 40pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Twins 4.43vsPadres 4.24
Padres has the edge in SP xFIP (0.6pp).
Padres edge · contribution +0.6pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Twins 4.28vsPadres 4.15
Padres has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.3pp).
Padres edge · contribution +1.3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Twins 0.318vsPadres 0.311
Twins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp).
Twins edge · contribution -0.4pp
WAR
weight 8%Twins 15.1vsPadres 15.3
Negligible gap in WAR.
Even
Recent Form
weight 10%Twins 50.0%vsPadres 70.0%
Padres has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).
Padres edge · contribution +10pp
Head-to-Head
weight 3%Twins 0%vsPadres 100%
Padres has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).
Padres edge · contribution +1.5pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Twins 0.311vsPadres 0.318
Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Padres edge · contribution +0.2pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Twins 7.8%vsPadres 8.2%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Elo
weight 10%Twins 1508vsPadres 1510
Negligible gap in Elo.
Even
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Padres win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Twins @ Padres · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Twins vs Padres)
Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result