SP FIP
weight 12%Twins 4.32vsPadres 4.15
Padres has the edge in SP FIP (2pp).
Padres edge · contribution +2pp
SDP vs MIN
SDP 60%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Padres has the edge in SP FIP (2pp). Padres has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Padres has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.7pp).
Batting & Roster — Twins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Padres has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Twins has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Padres ahead by 19pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Twins 4.46vsPadres 4.24
Padres has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp).
Padres edge · contribution +0.7pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Twins 4.32vsPadres 4.15
Padres has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.7pp).
Padres edge · contribution +1.7pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Twins 0.319vsPadres 0.310
Twins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Twins edge · contribution -0.5pp
WAR
weight 8%Twins 15.1vsPadres 14.9
Negligible gap in WAR.
Even
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Twins 0.312vsPadres 0.317
Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Padres edge · contribution +0.1pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Twins 7.9%vsPadres 8.2%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Padres win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Twins @ Padres · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Twins vs Padres)
Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result