SP FIP
weight 12%Pirates 3.92vsDodgers 3.93
Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (0.1pp).
Pirates edge · contribution -0.1pp
LAD vs PIT
LAD 69%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (0.1pp). Dodgers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp). Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Dodgers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Dodgers has the edge in WAR (0.5pp). Dodgers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.6pp).
Situational — Dodgers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Dodgers has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Dodgers has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Dodgers has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Dodgers ahead by 38pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Pirates 4.02vsDodgers 3.89
Dodgers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp).
Dodgers edge · contribution +0.4pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Pirates 3.92vsDodgers 3.93
Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.1pp).
Pirates edge · contribution -0.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Pirates 0.328vsDodgers 0.333
Dodgers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Dodgers edge · contribution +0.3pp
WAR
weight 8%Pirates 16.7vsDodgers 22.4
Dodgers has the edge in WAR (0.5pp).
Dodgers edge · contribution +0.5pp
Recent Form
weight 10%Pirates 50.0%vsDodgers 70.0%
Dodgers has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).
Dodgers edge · contribution +10pp
Head-to-Head
weight 3%Pirates 0%vsDodgers 100%
Dodgers has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).
Dodgers edge · contribution +1.5pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Pirates 0.316vsDodgers 0.339
Dodgers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.6pp).
Dodgers edge · contribution +0.6pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Pirates 8.0%vsDodgers 8.8%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Elo
weight 10%Pirates 1489vsDodgers 1511
Dodgers has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).
Dodgers edge · contribution +0.5pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Dodgers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Pirates @ Dodgers · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Pirates vs Dodgers)
Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result