LAD vs PIT

LAD 57%

Final: PIT 4 - 5 LAD

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (0.4pp). Dodgers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp). Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.3pp).

Batting & Roster — Dodgers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Dodgers has the edge in WAR (0.5pp). Dodgers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.6pp).

Situational — Dodgers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Dodgers ahead by 13pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Pirates 3.93vsDodgers 3.96

Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (0.4pp).

Pirates edge · contribution -0.4pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Pirates 4.04vsDodgers 3.91

Dodgers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution +0.4pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Pirates 3.93vsDodgers 3.96

Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.3pp).

Pirates edge · contribution -0.3pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Pirates 0.328vsDodgers 0.334

Dodgers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution +0.3pp

WAR

weight 8%

Pirates 16.0vsDodgers 21.9

Dodgers has the edge in WAR (0.5pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution +0.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Pirates 0.317vsDodgers 0.339

Dodgers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.6pp).

Dodgers edge · contribution +0.6pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Pirates 8.0%vsDodgers 8.8%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Dodgers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Pirates @ Dodgers · final [15%, 85%] clamp