SP FIP
weight 12%Pirates 3.93vsDodgers 3.96
Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (0.4pp).
Pirates edge · contribution -0.4pp
LAD vs PIT
LAD 57%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Pirates has the edge in SP FIP (0.4pp). Dodgers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp). Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.3pp).
Batting & Roster — Dodgers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Dodgers has the edge in WAR (0.5pp). Dodgers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.6pp).
Situational — Dodgers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Dodgers ahead by 13pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Pirates 4.04vsDodgers 3.91
Dodgers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp).
Dodgers edge · contribution +0.4pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Pirates 3.93vsDodgers 3.96
Pirates has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.3pp).
Pirates edge · contribution -0.3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Pirates 0.328vsDodgers 0.334
Dodgers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Dodgers edge · contribution +0.3pp
WAR
weight 8%Pirates 16.0vsDodgers 21.9
Dodgers has the edge in WAR (0.5pp).
Dodgers edge · contribution +0.5pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Pirates 0.317vsDodgers 0.339
Dodgers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.6pp).
Dodgers edge · contribution +0.6pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Pirates 8.0%vsDodgers 8.8%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Dodgers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Pirates @ Dodgers · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Pirates vs Dodgers)
Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result