KCR vs DET
SP Jacob Waguespack vs Daniel Lynch IV
Final: DET 7 - 11 KCR
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Tigers has the edge in SP FIP (8.8pp). Tigers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp). Tigers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.3pp).
Batting & Roster — Tigers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Tigers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Royals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Royals has the edge in Recent Form (20pp). Royals has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.3pp). Tigers has the edge in Elo (0.9pp). Royals has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Royals ahead by 14pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Tigers has the edge in SP FIP (8.8pp).
Tigers edge · contribution -8.8pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Tigers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp).
Tigers edge · contribution -1.5pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Tigers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.3pp).
Tigers edge · contribution -7.3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Tigers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Royals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Tigers @ Royals · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative