SP FIP
weight 12%Tigers 3.92vsRoyals 4.65
Tigers has the edge in SP FIP (8.8pp).
Tigers edge · contribution -8.8pp
KCR vs DET
KCR 57%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Tigers has the edge in SP FIP (8.8pp). Tigers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp). Tigers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.3pp).
Batting & Roster — Tigers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Tigers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Royals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Royals has the edge in Recent Form (20pp). Royals has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.3pp). Tigers has the edge in Elo (0.9pp). Royals has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Royals ahead by 14pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Tigers 4.04vsRoyals 4.54
Tigers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp).
Tigers edge · contribution -1.5pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Tigers 3.92vsRoyals 4.65
Tigers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.3pp).
Tigers edge · contribution -7.3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Tigers 0.319vsRoyals 0.313
Tigers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Tigers edge · contribution -0.3pp
WAR
weight 8%Tigers 15.8vsRoyals 15.4
Negligible gap in WAR.
Even
Recent Form
weight 10%Tigers 30.0%vsRoyals 70.0%
Royals has the edge in Recent Form (20pp).
Royals edge · contribution +20pp
Head-to-Head
weight 3%Tigers 40%vsRoyals 60%
Royals has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.3pp).
Royals edge · contribution +0.3pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Tigers 0.320vsRoyals 0.312
Tigers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Tigers edge · contribution -0.2pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Tigers 8.3%vsRoyals 8.0%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Elo
weight 10%Tigers 1518vsRoyals 1483
Tigers has the edge in Elo (0.9pp).
Tigers edge · contribution -0.9pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Royals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Tigers @ Royals · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Tigers vs Royals)
Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result