SP FIP
weight 12%Tigers 3.86vsRoyals 4.67
Tigers has the edge in SP FIP (9.7pp).
Tigers edge · contribution -9.7pp
KCR vs DET
DET 65%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Tigers has the edge in SP FIP (9.7pp). Tigers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp). Tigers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Tigers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Tigers has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Tigers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Royals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Royals has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Tigers ahead by 29pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Tigers 4.03vsRoyals 4.53
Tigers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp).
Tigers edge · contribution -1.5pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Tigers 3.86vsRoyals 4.67
Tigers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.1pp).
Tigers edge · contribution -8.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Tigers 0.320vsRoyals 0.310
Tigers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Tigers edge · contribution -0.5pp
WAR
weight 8%Tigers 16.0vsRoyals 13.2
Tigers has the edge in WAR (0.2pp).
Tigers edge · contribution -0.2pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Tigers 0.320vsRoyals 0.312
Tigers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Tigers edge · contribution -0.2pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Tigers 8.4%vsRoyals 7.9%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Royals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Tigers @ Royals · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Tigers vs Royals)
Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result