COL vs CLE
SP Foster Griffin vs Tomoyuki Sugano
Final: CLE 7 - 2 COL
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Guardians has the edge in SP FIP (11.4pp). Guardians has the edge in SP xFIP (2.6pp). Guardians has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.5pp).
Batting & Roster — Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1pp). Guardians has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Rockies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Rockies has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Guardians has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Guardians has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Rockies has the edge in Elo (0.1pp). Rockies has the edge in Park Factor (0.6pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Guardians ahead by 46pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Guardians has the edge in SP FIP (11.4pp).
Guardians edge · contribution -11.4pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Guardians has the edge in SP xFIP (2.6pp).
Guardians edge · contribution -2.6pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Guardians has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.5pp).
Guardians edge · contribution -9.5pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rockies win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Guardians @ Rockies · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative