SP FIP
weight 12%Guardians 3.90vsRockies 4.85
Guardians has the edge in SP FIP (11.4pp).
Guardians edge · contribution -11.4pp
COL vs CLE
CLE 73%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Guardians has the edge in SP FIP (11.4pp). Guardians has the edge in SP xFIP (2.6pp). Guardians has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.5pp).
Batting & Roster — Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1pp). Guardians has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Rockies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Rockies has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Guardians has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Guardians has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Rockies has the edge in Elo (0.1pp). Rockies has the edge in Park Factor (0.6pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Guardians ahead by 46pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Guardians 3.88vsRockies 4.73
Guardians has the edge in SP xFIP (2.6pp).
Guardians edge · contribution -2.6pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Guardians 3.90vsRockies 4.85
Guardians has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.5pp).
Guardians edge · contribution -9.5pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Guardians 0.304vsRockies 0.324
Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1pp).
Rockies edge · contribution +1pp
WAR
weight 8%Guardians 14.6vsRockies 6.8
Guardians has the edge in WAR (0.6pp).
Guardians edge · contribution -0.6pp
Recent Form
weight 10%Guardians 50.0%vsRockies 40.0%
Guardians has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).
Guardians edge · contribution -5pp
Head-to-Head
weight 3%Guardians 100%vsRockies 0%
Guardians has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).
Guardians edge · contribution -1.5pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Guardians 0.304vsRockies 0.308
Rockies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Rockies edge · contribution +0.1pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Guardians 6.2%vsRockies 6.5%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Elo
weight 10%Guardians 1485vsRockies 1488
Rockies has the edge in Elo (0.1pp).
Rockies edge · contribution +0.1pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rockies win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Guardians @ Rockies · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Guardians vs Rockies)
Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result