SP FIP
weight 12%Giants 4.16vsRed Sox 3.65
Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (6.1pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +6.1pp
BOS vs SFG
BOS 83%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (6.1pp). Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (1.8pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.5pp). Red Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Red Sox has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Red Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Red Sox has the edge in Elo (1.1pp). Red Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Red Sox ahead by 65pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Giants 4.40vsRed Sox 3.80
Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (1.8pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +1.8pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Giants 4.16vsRed Sox 3.65
Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.1pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +5.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Giants 0.310vsRed Sox 0.321
Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +0.6pp
WAR
weight 8%Giants 10.8vsRed Sox 17.3
Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.5pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +0.5pp
Recent Form
weight 10%Giants 30.0%vsRed Sox 50.0%
Red Sox has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +10pp
Head-to-Head
weight 3%Giants 0%vsRed Sox 100%
Red Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +1.5pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Giants 0.308vsRed Sox 0.312
Red Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +0.1pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Giants 7.3%vsRed Sox 7.3%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Elo
weight 10%Giants 1487vsRed Sox 1532
Red Sox has the edge in Elo (1.1pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +1.1pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Red Sox win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Giants @ Red Sox · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Giants vs Red Sox)
Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result