SP FIP
weight 12%Giants 4.17vsRed Sox 3.63
Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (6.5pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +6.5pp
BOS vs SFG
BOS 70%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (6.5pp). Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (1.9pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.4pp).
Batting & Roster — Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp). Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Red Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Red Sox has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Red Sox ahead by 41pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Giants 4.40vsRed Sox 3.78
Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (1.9pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +1.9pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Giants 4.17vsRed Sox 3.63
Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5.4pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +5.4pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Giants 0.311vsRed Sox 0.319
Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +0.4pp
WAR
weight 8%Giants 11.2vsRed Sox 15.9
Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.4pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +0.4pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Giants 0.308vsRed Sox 0.311
Red Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +0.1pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Giants 7.2%vsRed Sox 7.3%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Red Sox win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Giants @ Red Sox · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Giants vs Red Sox)
Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result