BAL vs TBR
SP Nick Martinez vs Shane Baz
Final: TBR 3 - 1 BAL
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (0.7pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.6pp).
Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp). Orioles has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Orioles has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Orioles has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Orioles has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.9pp). Rays has the edge in Elo (0.6pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Orioles ahead by 23pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (0.7pp).
Orioles edge · contribution +0.7pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp).
Rays edge · contribution -0.7pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.6pp).
Orioles edge · contribution +0.6pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Orioles win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Rays @ Orioles · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative