SP FIP
weight 12%Rays 4.12vsOrioles 4.06
Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (0.7pp).
Orioles edge · contribution +0.7pp
BAL vs TBR
BAL 62%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Orioles has the edge in SP FIP (0.7pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.6pp).
Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp). Orioles has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Orioles has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Orioles has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Orioles has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.9pp). Rays has the edge in Elo (0.6pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Orioles ahead by 23pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Rays 3.98vsOrioles 4.22
Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp).
Rays edge · contribution -0.7pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Rays 4.12vsOrioles 4.06
Orioles has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.6pp).
Orioles edge · contribution +0.6pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rays 0.323vsOrioles 0.316
Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp).
Rays edge · contribution -0.4pp
WAR
weight 8%Rays 19.0vsOrioles 16.8
Rays has the edge in WAR (0.2pp).
Rays edge · contribution -0.2pp
Recent Form
weight 10%Rays 40.0%vsOrioles 50.0%
Orioles has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).
Orioles edge · contribution +5pp
Head-to-Head
weight 3%Rays 20%vsOrioles 80%
Orioles has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.9pp).
Orioles edge · contribution +0.9pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Rays 0.307vsOrioles 0.326
Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp).
Orioles edge · contribution +0.5pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Rays 5.8%vsOrioles 8.7%
Orioles has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Orioles edge · contribution +0.1pp
Elo
weight 10%Rays 1525vsOrioles 1503
Rays has the edge in Elo (0.6pp).
Rays edge · contribution -0.6pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Orioles win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Rays @ Orioles · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Rays vs Orioles)
Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result