SP FIP
weight 12%Rays 4.07vsOrioles 4.08
Rays has the edge in SP FIP (0.1pp).
Rays edge · contribution -0.1pp
BAL vs TBR
BAL 55%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Rays has the edge in SP FIP (0.1pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp). Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp). Orioles has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Orioles has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Orioles ahead by 9pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Rays 4.00vsOrioles 4.27
Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp).
Rays edge · contribution -0.8pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Rays 4.07vsOrioles 4.08
Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.1pp).
Rays edge · contribution -0.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rays 0.325vsOrioles 0.317
Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp).
Rays edge · contribution -0.4pp
WAR
weight 8%Rays 19.6vsOrioles 16.7
Rays has the edge in WAR (0.2pp).
Rays edge · contribution -0.2pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Rays 0.307vsOrioles 0.325
Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp).
Orioles edge · contribution +0.5pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Rays 5.8%vsOrioles 8.7%
Orioles has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Orioles edge · contribution +0.1pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Orioles win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Rays @ Orioles · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Rays vs Orioles)
Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result