SP FIP
weight 12%Athletics 4.97vsRoyals 4.67
Royals has the edge in SP FIP (3.6pp).
Royals edge · contribution +3.6pp
KCR vs ATH
KCR 62%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Royals has the edge in SP FIP (3.6pp). Royals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp). Royals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3pp).
Batting & Roster — Athletics has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp). Royals has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Athletics has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Royals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Royals has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Royals ahead by 24pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Athletics 4.57vsRoyals 4.53
Royals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp).
Royals edge · contribution +0.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Athletics 4.97vsRoyals 4.67
Royals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3pp).
Royals edge · contribution +3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Athletics 0.317vsRoyals 0.310
Athletics has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp).
Athletics edge · contribution -0.4pp
WAR
weight 8%Athletics 11.6vsRoyals 13.2
Royals has the edge in WAR (0.1pp).
Royals edge · contribution +0.1pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Athletics 0.312vsRoyals 0.309
Athletics has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Athletics edge · contribution -0.1pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Athletics 7.8%vsRoyals 7.9%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Royals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Athletics @ Royals · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Athletics vs Royals)
Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result