KCR vs ATH
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Royals has the edge in SP FIP (3.8pp). Royals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp). Royals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.2pp).
Batting & Roster — Athletics has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Royals has the edge in WAR (0.1pp).
Situational — Royals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Royals has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Royals ahead by 25pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
- SP FIP
- 4.67 / 4.99
- SP xFIP
- 4.53 / 4.58
- Bullpen FIP
- 4.67 / 4.99
- Lineup wOBA
- 0.309 / 0.315
- WAR
- 12.6 / 11.01
- Lineup xwOBA
- 0.309 / 0.31
- Barrel%
- 7.9 / 7.7
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Royals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Athletics @ Royals · final [15%, 85%] clamp