KCR vs ATH
Final: ATH 3 - 4 KCR
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Royals has the edge in SP FIP (4pp). Royals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp). Royals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.3pp).
Batting & Roster — Athletics has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp). Royals has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Athletics has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Royals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Royals has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Royals ahead by 25pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Royals has the edge in SP FIP (4pp).
Royals edge · contribution +4pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Royals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp).
Royals edge · contribution +0.2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Royals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.3pp).
Royals edge · contribution +3.3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Athletics has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Royals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Athletics @ Royals · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative