KCR vs ATH

KCR 63%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Royals has the edge in SP FIP (4pp). Royals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp). Royals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.3pp).

Batting & Roster — Athletics has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp). Royals has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Athletics has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Royals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Royals has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Royals ahead by 25pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Athletics 4.97vsRoyals 4.64

Royals has the edge in SP FIP (4pp).

Royals edge · contribution +4pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Athletics 4.57vsRoyals 4.52

Royals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp).

Royals edge · contribution +0.2pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Athletics 4.97vsRoyals 4.64

Royals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.3pp).

Royals edge · contribution +3.3pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Athletics 0.317vsRoyals 0.309

Athletics has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp).

Athletics edge · contribution -0.4pp

WAR

weight 8%

Athletics 11.5vsRoyals 12.8

Royals has the edge in WAR (0.1pp).

Royals edge · contribution +0.1pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Athletics 0.311vsRoyals 0.309

Athletics has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Athletics edge · contribution -0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Athletics 7.8%vsRoyals 7.9%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Royals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Athletics @ Royals · final [15%, 85%] clamp