HOU vs LAA
Final: LAA 2 - 3 HOU
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Angels has the edge in SP FIP (5.3pp). Angels has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp). Angels has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.4pp).
Batting & Roster — Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp). Astros has the edge in WAR (0.8pp). Astros has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Situational — Astros has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Astros has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Angels ahead by 6pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Angels has the edge in SP FIP (5.3pp).
Angels edge · contribution -5.3pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Angels has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp).
Angels edge · contribution -0.9pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Angels has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.4pp).
Angels edge · contribution -4.4pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Astros win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Angels @ Astros · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative