SP FIP
weight 12%Angels 4.23vsAstros 4.67
Angels has the edge in SP FIP (5.3pp).
Angels edge · contribution -5.3pp
HOU vs LAA
LAA 53%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Angels has the edge in SP FIP (5.3pp). Angels has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp). Angels has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.4pp).
Batting & Roster — Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp). Astros has the edge in WAR (0.8pp). Astros has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Situational — Astros has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Astros has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Angels ahead by 6pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Angels 4.23vsAstros 4.52
Angels has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp).
Angels edge · contribution -0.9pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Angels 4.23vsAstros 4.67
Angels has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.4pp).
Angels edge · contribution -4.4pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Angels 0.303vsAstros 0.319
Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp).
Astros edge · contribution +0.8pp
WAR
weight 8%Angels 7.6vsAstros 17.1
Astros has the edge in WAR (0.8pp).
Astros edge · contribution +0.8pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Angels 0.305vsAstros 0.316
Astros has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Astros edge · contribution +0.3pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Angels 8.0%vsAstros 8.0%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Astros win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Angels @ Astros · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Angels vs Astros)
Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result