TBR vs TOR
Final: TOR 10 - 5 TBR
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Blue Jays has the edge in SP FIP (1.1pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp). Blue Jays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.3pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.5pp). Rays has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).
Situational — Rays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Blue Jays has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Rays ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Blue Jays has the edge in SP FIP (1.1pp).
Blue Jays edge · contribution -1.1pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp).
Rays edge · contribution +0.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Blue Jays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.9pp).
Blue Jays edge · contribution -0.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.3pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Blue Jays @ Rays · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative