SP FIP
weight 12%Blue Jays 3.96vsRays 4.05
Blue Jays has the edge in SP FIP (1.1pp).
Blue Jays edge · contribution -1.1pp
TBR vs TOR
TBR 56%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Blue Jays has the edge in SP FIP (1.1pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp). Blue Jays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.3pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.5pp). Rays has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).
Situational — Rays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Blue Jays has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Rays ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Blue Jays 4.05vsRays 4.00
Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp).
Rays edge · contribution +0.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Blue Jays 3.96vsRays 4.05
Blue Jays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.9pp).
Blue Jays edge · contribution -0.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Blue Jays 0.299vsRays 0.324
Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.3pp).
Rays edge · contribution +1.3pp
WAR
weight 8%Blue Jays 12.6vsRays 19.2
Rays has the edge in WAR (0.5pp).
Rays edge · contribution +0.5pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Blue Jays 0.294vsRays 0.308
Rays has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).
Rays edge · contribution +0.4pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Blue Jays 5.8%vsRays 5.8%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Blue Jays @ Rays · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Blue Jays vs Rays)
Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result