TOR vs TBR
Final: TBR 12 - 2 TOR
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Blue Jays has the edge in SP FIP (0.7pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp). Blue Jays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.6pp).
Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.2pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.5pp). Rays has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Situational — Blue Jays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Blue Jays ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Blue Jays has the edge in SP FIP (0.7pp).
Blue Jays edge · contribution +0.7pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp).
Rays edge · contribution -0.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Blue Jays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.6pp).
Blue Jays edge · contribution +0.6pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.2pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Blue Jays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Rays @ Blue Jays · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative