BOS vs ARI

BOS 73%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (8pp). Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (2pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.7pp).

Batting & Roster — Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Red Sox has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Red Sox ahead by 45pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Diamondbacks 4.31vsRed Sox 3.64

Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (8pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution +8pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Diamondbacks 4.46vsRed Sox 3.79

Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (2pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution +2pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Diamondbacks 4.31vsRed Sox 3.64

Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.7pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution +6.7pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Diamondbacks 0.314vsRed Sox 0.317

Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution +0.2pp

WAR

weight 8%

Diamondbacks 14.5vsRed Sox 15.3

Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.1pp).

Red Sox edge · contribution +0.1pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Diamondbacks 0.312vsRed Sox 0.309

Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Diamondbacks edge · contribution -0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Diamondbacks 7.0%vsRed Sox 7.2%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Red Sox win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Diamondbacks @ Red Sox · final [15%, 85%] clamp