BOS vs ARI
Final: ARI 1 - 11 BOS
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (8pp). Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (2pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.7pp).
Batting & Roster — Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Red Sox has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Red Sox ahead by 46pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (8pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +8pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (2pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.7pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution +6.7pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Red Sox win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Diamondbacks @ Red Sox · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative