BOS vs ARI

BOS 73%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (8pp). Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (2pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.7pp).

Batting & Roster — Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Red Sox has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Red Sox ahead by 46pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP: 3.65 / 4.32
SP xFIP: 3.78 / 4.46
Bullpen FIP: 3.65 / 4.32
Lineup wOBA: 0.318 / 0.315
WAR: 15.53 / 14.68
Lineup xwOBA: 0.31 / 0.312
Barrel%: 7.2 / 7

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Red Sox win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Diamondbacks @ Red Sox · final [15%, 85%] clamp