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MoneyBallScore

COL vs TBR

COL 56%

Final: TBR 9 - 7 COL

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Rays has the edge in SP FIP (9.6pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (2.2pp). Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8pp).

Batting & Roster — Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.9pp). Rockies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Rockies has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Rockies has the edge in Park Factor (0.6pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Rockies ahead by 11pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP
4.83 / 4.03
SP xFIP
4.71 / 3.99
Bullpen FIP
4.83 / 4.03
Lineup wOBA
0.326 / 0.324
WAR
7.08 / 18.53
Lineup xwOBA
0.309 / 0.307
Barrel%
6.7 / 5.8

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rockies win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Rays @ Rockies · final [15%, 85%] clamp