COL vs TBR
Final: TBR 13 - 9 COL
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Rays has the edge in SP FIP (9.6pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (2.2pp). Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8pp).
Batting & Roster — Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.9pp). Rockies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Rockies has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Rockies has the edge in Park Factor (0.6pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Rockies ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Rays has the edge in SP FIP (9.6pp).
Rays edge · contribution -9.6pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (2.2pp).
Rays edge · contribution -2.2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8pp).
Rays edge · contribution -8pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rockies win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Rays @ Rockies · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative