SDP vs SFG
Final: SFG 4 - 5 SDP
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Giants has the edge in SP FIP (0.4pp). Padres has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp). Giants has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.3pp).
Batting & Roster — Giants has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Padres has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Padres has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Giants has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Padres ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Giants has the edge in SP FIP (0.4pp).
Giants edge · contribution -0.4pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Padres has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp).
Padres edge · contribution +0.4pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Giants has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.3pp).
Giants edge · contribution -0.3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Giants has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Padres win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Giants @ Padres · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative