SDP vs SFG

SDP 56%

Final: SFG 5 - 6 SDP

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Giants has the edge in SP FIP (0.4pp). Padres has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp). Giants has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.3pp).

Batting & Roster — Giants has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Padres has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Situational — Padres has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Giants has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Padres ahead by 11pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP: 4.19 / 4.16
SP xFIP: 4.26 / 4.38
Bullpen FIP: 4.19 / 4.16
Lineup wOBA: 0.309 / 0.311
WAR: 13.94 / 10.45
Lineup xwOBA: 0.317 / 0.308
Barrel%: 8.2 / 7.2

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Padres win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Giants @ Padres · final [15%, 85%] clamp