TBR vs WSN

TBR 56%

Final: WSN 4 - 3 TBR

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Rays has the edge in SP FIP (9.2pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (1.6pp). Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (7.7pp).

Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.6pp). Nationals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Rays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Nationals has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Rays ahead by 11pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP: 4.03 / 4.8
SP xFIP: 3.99 / 4.51
Bullpen FIP: 4.03 / 4.8
Lineup wOBA: 0.324 / 0.335
WAR: 18.53 / 20.78
Lineup xwOBA: 0.307 / 0.331
Barrel%: 5.8 / 9.1

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Nationals @ Rays · final [15%, 85%] clamp